As Election Day draws closer, the New York Times's young star poll analyst Nate Silver becomes more and more confident of an Obama win. As of Monday morning, his blog fixed Obama as having a 86.3% chance of winning re-election.
Monday morning Silver posted this on Twitter: "Obama unlikely to win by anything like his post-DNC margins. But Romney has no momentum, Obama's state polling is robust, and time is up."
Headlines encapsulate the flavor of Silver's detailed, into-the-weeds analysis: "Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased."
Silver's Sunday morning post held out virtually no hope for Mitt Romney, seeing Romney's play for Pennsylvania as a desperation move.
That brings us to Pennsylvania -- where the forecast model puts Mr. Obama’s chances at better than 95 percent.
If the national polls show a tie on average, then Mr. Romney will be more of an underdog than you might think, since that is when Mr. Obama’s Electoral College advantages will tend to give him their greatest benefit. In the FiveThirtyEight simulation on Saturday, Mr. Obama won the Electoral College about 80 percent of the time when the national popular vote was tied.
Image courtesy of Randy Stewart.